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Don’t Have A War On Two Fronts, Mr Cameron 13 December 2006

Posted by David in Conservatives, Polls, UKIP.

As I have expected for some time, polls are showing a gradual rise of the “others”. The Independent reports on it, as does Anthony Wells. The latest Populus poll for The Times states Conservative34% (-2%), Labour 33% (nc) & Liberal Democrats 19% (-1%). The Greens are given 4% and UKIP 2%. It is unclear what the BNP polled.

Populus hasn’t traditionally shown high scores for minor parties, that’s usually YouGov, however all pollsters are showing the “others” increasing. It will be interesting to see the next YouGov poll, as they are my favoured company and give higher minor party figures. Their last poll gave the Greens, UKIP and the BNP 3% each (Populus at the time gave UKIP 1%).

Cameron has got to be careful. The Cameronians have believed that Tories have no where else to go, or won’t want to risk Labour winning, so will always vote blue. This view has been put across to me by several MPs. They are wrong. As the Bromley by-election showed, they can and will stay at home if they see no difference between New Labour and “Blue Labour” – a UKIP term getting known by more and more of the general public.

I do not want to see a Labour government caused by the centre-right splitting. It is up to Mr Cameron to see that it doesn’t. I equally don’t want to see Blue Labour. Again rectifying this is up to Mr Cameron.

He cannot go on fighting a war on two fronts. He must learn from other parties across the globe, where they have moved a few select single issues to the right/left (depending on their own ideology) to stamp out competition on their ‘home’ flank. A referendum on the EU would do this easily, but he must do it soon or risk failure.



1. Serf - 14 December 2006

A referendum on the EU would stamp out the threat from UKIP. However, I wonder what the BBC would make of it?

Much as I like the idea, I think it could lose Dave a lot of media backing. Better to win the election first maybe?

2. blogger - 14 December 2006

I don’t think it would be fatal to media backing, and the chances of winning the election are far higher with UKIP neutralised than with them attacking “Blue Labour”.

The Greens could cause a lot of damage to the Lib Dems and Labour, so if we [Tories] can neutralise UKIP to create a unified flank that’s even further to our advantage.

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