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The “Others” Are Out There 22 December 2006

Posted by David in Conservatives, Polls, UKIP.
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In my post “Don’t Fight A War On Two Fronts, Mr Cameron” (13th December 2006) Iexpressed an interest in this month’s YouGov poll, after Populus had rated the Greens at4% and UKIP at 2%.As I said then, “Populus hasn’t traditionally shown high scores for minor parties, that’s usually YouGov, however all pollsters are showing the othersincreasing. It will be interesting to see the next YouGov poll, as they are my favoured company and give higher minor party figures. Their last poll gave the Greens, UKIP and the BNP 3% each (Populus at the time gave UKIP 1%).”

Now we have that December YouGov poll. Whilst it’s bad news for the Greens (down to 1%), UKIP is static at 3% and the BNP up to 4%, equal to the combined SNP/PC vote.

Previously there had been speculation that the Greens could split the Labour and Lib Dem vote, delivering a Conservative government. With their poll ratings back to normal, it looks like the 3-4% Green poll shares were just a blip caused by the heavy media focus on the environment or a simple statistical error. If it’s the first however, a savvy Conservative campaign strategist could focus on the environment not to gain votes but to split the Lib Dem vote in the Greens favour, electing Conservative MPs.

According to ICM, just 19% of Conservative voters and 16% of Labour voters would consider voting Green, both within each others margin of error. Damage would be fairly equal to both parties. A Green focus could however be lethal to Lib Dems, as 30% of their voters declared they would consider voting Green.

Conversely, a Labour government could allow Europe to become an issue to cause Conservative splits. This I feel is less likely, due to the unpredictable nature of Eurosceptic voters. Whilst most die hard UKIP are former Conservatives, only 14% of current Tory voters would consider voting UKIP, only just ahead of 9% of Labour voters and 8%of Lib Dems considering it. An EU focus would drive voters to UKIP from all parties, but also to the Conservatives.

Cameron has really got to close his ‘home’ flank from UKIP raids. This is the tactic of other successful parties internationally, but sadly it seems to be getting missed.

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Comments»

1. Richard Lee - 22 December 2006

Conservatives should take time and see what UKIP are saying about fighting Conservatives:

http://www.ukiphome.com/comments.asp?sid=735

“We should be working now, in every possible seat where our votes could result in a defeat for a Conservative candidate. This will help Labour and the LibDems this one time”

and

“If we do this, then for one more Labour term, there will be the real chance of a Tory split”

and on the Epping Forest Borough Council by election Grange Hill ward 14 December 2006:

http://www.democracyforum.co.uk/about15916-0-asc-70.html

“…By winning this seat the Tories gained control of the Council which they were denied by our standing in another ward in May,when the long term incumbent and Eastern Regional Assembly member for Theydon Bois ward was ousted by 23 votes.UKIP took 136 votes having never stood there before.Had we had the notice of the Grange Hill by election in time we WOULD have stood and I’m confident that we would have denied the Tories success.”

I think these comments show what UKIPs game really is. Not to campaign to get Britain to withdraw from the EU. Oh no – their aim is to defeat Conservative candidates and get Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates to win. Their long term aim is to split the Conservatives. What a pathetic waste of space and a waste of good votes. They are betraying everybody who votes for them

2. blogger - 22 December 2006

Exactly. We have got to remove the UKIP threat. By offering a fair referendum on membership of the EU, or preferably withdrawal, Cameron could close his right ‘home’ flank and focus his efforts on the centre ground. How can the Europhiles legitimately complain about a free, democratic referendum without looking stupid?


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